What about Monday August 15th?
Friday August 12th, 2022
On Monday, August 15th, 2022 Canadians will awake to breaking news that Canada's Benchmark Price for a home jumped 12% higher than it was last year in July. Depending upon actual or seasonally adjusted and how recent revisions to the Benchmark roll out, this is still what real estate agents hope you focus on. The intent of this news is to alleviate Home Buyer's concerns and to encourage them to buy into the market. Providing those buyers with a murky view, hidden behind statistics, that were created with the sole purpose of getting sellers the highest price possible for their home!
It is day that was promised to never happen. A day the design of the benchmark was supposedly never to deliver. A day where the entire foundation that Canada's real estate brokerages earn commissions from, gets revealed for all to see. If past recent months' history repeats itself we can also see the rapidly declining number of homes purchased buried behind a Seasonal Adjustment to a data point that should never be seasonally adjusted when one understands how the home trading market functions. Then again so many believe house prices change in a month even though no one has ever been able to prove they do!
Canadians deserve the truth, after all home was/is/will continue to consume the greatest share of income the average Canadian Household will spend in their lifetimes. So what is the truth?
Home Buyers across Canada in July spent on average only $630,000 purchasing their next home.
Home Buyers across Canada in July spent $31,800 less than they did on average a year ago last July.
Home Buyers across Canada on an inflation adjusted basis were spending almost 10% more a year ago than in July this year.
It is important to see how a narrative created to extract a commission from a trade in real estate and to have those commissions hidden in the purchase price presents a narrative of a 12% increase in the price on a mythological home versus the Real 10% decline Home Buyers were spending.
The 38,000 Home Buyers who purchased a home in July 2022 actually purchased their home in July believing the exact same false narratives August home buyers are being instructed to believe today. House prices are 12% higher when they are really 10% lower and dropping!
How We See It!
Home Trades in Canada peaked in June of 2021 recording the most rapid buyer driven reversal of sales in the recorded history of the home trading market in Canada. The result of this massive reversal was that the Average Home purchased in a month nationally just six month later by February 2022 had shifted to the highest quality of home ever purchased in a month in Canadian history on average.
There were around 108,000 home buyers who purchased a home in February and March of 2022
and the home they purchased had an average agreed upon price of $805,000.
four months later....
In July and August there were around 86,000 home buyers who purchased a home in 2022
and the home they purchased had an average agreed upon price of $650,000
Yes, the Average Buyer who acquired a home in July/August 2022 vs February/March 2022 spend on Average $155,000 less. It is important to note the massive sample size we are referencing which is actually smaller than the ones we use daily to forecast the Canadian Home Trading Market.
( The above data points are restricted to real estate brokerages and only compose a portion of the complete dataset we use. This allows readers to verify against statistics published by organized real estate. )
Every Canadian must be concerned right now because for the last 70 years if home buyers were spending on average 14% more after four months, the narrative they were convinced to believe was that average home price had increased 14%. Now that home buyers are spending 14% less after four months is that same 70 year old narrative going to be followed or will for the first time in history will banks economists, CMHC, the Bank of Canada Staff, Canadian Academics or even the OECD admit they were mislead the last 70 years when they lied to you?
When prices aren't rising they want you to believe they are.
When prices are falling they want you to believe they are not.
Was it really the often cited "irrational exuberance" of 108,000 families that allowed them to buy a home at peak price after sales had peaked 6 months earlier or do you believe these innocent families were sold a narrative of unending perpetual house price gain bliss? Do we really believe our neighbours are this foolish or is it possible that with the 100s of false narrative reports that had sought to explain the reason why house prices go up, have those reports simply become believed? Many after all were written with economists who had PHDs.
One of the greatest myths in economics is that house prices change in 31 days or less and that you can't Time a Housing Market. The myth is so well entrenched that last July the Bank of Canada did not foresee the rapid rise in Average Price that was to follow as a result of fewer and fewer and fewer first time homes being acquired. The inflation that should have been predicted (excluding global factors) was right there for anyone to see, as it has been now since real estate data was first digitized.
Let me leave you with this.
Zillow failed in the USA because it believed house prices change in 31 days or less. Zillow has raised Billions in IPOs. Zillow offers One Million USA Dollars if you can show them how to time the market and forecast house prices. Now if someone who could win that prize realized no one else has spent the decades of research required to claim it...would you?
Our offer could be a Billion but to make it sound more "rational" we have kept it to only $100,000.
Go ahead give it a try! www.rosskay.com/100kprize.html
House Prices don't change and have never changed, in any month in history. No one can find a month where they can prove they do. When you sell a few thousand homes and assist in building out the mls infrastructure in Canada over 50 years your legacy is one that allows these truths to be said without fear.
Regards
Ross
On Monday, August 15th, 2022 Canadians will awake to breaking news that Canada's Benchmark Price for a home jumped 12% higher than it was last year in July. Depending upon actual or seasonally adjusted and how recent revisions to the Benchmark roll out, this is still what real estate agents hope you focus on. The intent of this news is to alleviate Home Buyer's concerns and to encourage them to buy into the market. Providing those buyers with a murky view, hidden behind statistics, that were created with the sole purpose of getting sellers the highest price possible for their home!
It is day that was promised to never happen. A day the design of the benchmark was supposedly never to deliver. A day where the entire foundation that Canada's real estate brokerages earn commissions from, gets revealed for all to see. If past recent months' history repeats itself we can also see the rapidly declining number of homes purchased buried behind a Seasonal Adjustment to a data point that should never be seasonally adjusted when one understands how the home trading market functions. Then again so many believe house prices change in a month even though no one has ever been able to prove they do!
Canadians deserve the truth, after all home was/is/will continue to consume the greatest share of income the average Canadian Household will spend in their lifetimes. So what is the truth?
Home Buyers across Canada in July spent on average only $630,000 purchasing their next home.
Home Buyers across Canada in July spent $31,800 less than they did on average a year ago last July.
Home Buyers across Canada on an inflation adjusted basis were spending almost 10% more a year ago than in July this year.
It is important to see how a narrative created to extract a commission from a trade in real estate and to have those commissions hidden in the purchase price presents a narrative of a 12% increase in the price on a mythological home versus the Real 10% decline Home Buyers were spending.
The 38,000 Home Buyers who purchased a home in July 2022 actually purchased their home in July believing the exact same false narratives August home buyers are being instructed to believe today. House prices are 12% higher when they are really 10% lower and dropping!
How We See It!
Home Trades in Canada peaked in June of 2021 recording the most rapid buyer driven reversal of sales in the recorded history of the home trading market in Canada. The result of this massive reversal was that the Average Home purchased in a month nationally just six month later by February 2022 had shifted to the highest quality of home ever purchased in a month in Canadian history on average.
There were around 108,000 home buyers who purchased a home in February and March of 2022
and the home they purchased had an average agreed upon price of $805,000.
four months later....
In July and August there were around 86,000 home buyers who purchased a home in 2022
and the home they purchased had an average agreed upon price of $650,000
Yes, the Average Buyer who acquired a home in July/August 2022 vs February/March 2022 spend on Average $155,000 less. It is important to note the massive sample size we are referencing which is actually smaller than the ones we use daily to forecast the Canadian Home Trading Market.
( The above data points are restricted to real estate brokerages and only compose a portion of the complete dataset we use. This allows readers to verify against statistics published by organized real estate. )
Every Canadian must be concerned right now because for the last 70 years if home buyers were spending on average 14% more after four months, the narrative they were convinced to believe was that average home price had increased 14%. Now that home buyers are spending 14% less after four months is that same 70 year old narrative going to be followed or will for the first time in history will banks economists, CMHC, the Bank of Canada Staff, Canadian Academics or even the OECD admit they were mislead the last 70 years when they lied to you?
When prices aren't rising they want you to believe they are.
When prices are falling they want you to believe they are not.
Was it really the often cited "irrational exuberance" of 108,000 families that allowed them to buy a home at peak price after sales had peaked 6 months earlier or do you believe these innocent families were sold a narrative of unending perpetual house price gain bliss? Do we really believe our neighbours are this foolish or is it possible that with the 100s of false narrative reports that had sought to explain the reason why house prices go up, have those reports simply become believed? Many after all were written with economists who had PHDs.
One of the greatest myths in economics is that house prices change in 31 days or less and that you can't Time a Housing Market. The myth is so well entrenched that last July the Bank of Canada did not foresee the rapid rise in Average Price that was to follow as a result of fewer and fewer and fewer first time homes being acquired. The inflation that should have been predicted (excluding global factors) was right there for anyone to see, as it has been now since real estate data was first digitized.
Let me leave you with this.
Zillow failed in the USA because it believed house prices change in 31 days or less. Zillow has raised Billions in IPOs. Zillow offers One Million USA Dollars if you can show them how to time the market and forecast house prices. Now if someone who could win that prize realized no one else has spent the decades of research required to claim it...would you?
Our offer could be a Billion but to make it sound more "rational" we have kept it to only $100,000.
Go ahead give it a try! www.rosskay.com/100kprize.html
House Prices don't change and have never changed, in any month in history. No one can find a month where they can prove they do. When you sell a few thousand homes and assist in building out the mls infrastructure in Canada over 50 years your legacy is one that allows these truths to be said without fear.
Regards
Ross
