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The BIG FOUR - April 2016


Vancouver​

Unit Sales
​Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Cooling
Absorption Rate: Increasing
Trading Rate: Heating

(Readings included with Subscription)

DOBT:
decreasing
Trading Cycle Stage:
Exit

Unit Prices
​NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00
​RPPI: 101.00

​Equity at Risk:
​increasing
41.7%

Previous Cycle Call:
Exit/Entry
​Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014
​Called: Aug 2014
Validated: Dec 2014

​Current Cycle Call:
Exit
​Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014
​Called: Aug 2014
Forecast
​Validation:
 Dec 2014

Intelligence and Insight
Vancouver 30 days of April
Vancouver home sales continued to cool down for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go negative in August 2016.

Vancouver's Trading Cycle is in the final days of its Mature Stage and as a result of the shifting sales mix the average home buyer who is purchasing is acquiring even more expensive homes skewing the average upward.

While the brakes have begun to be applied on the market, the current velocity that was reached 3 months ago has created an OverSold condition in the market which naturally results in even further price gains being recorded.  Bidding competition, claims of supply shortages and suggestions that more sales would have been recorded had inventory been available are common when existing home owners are increasingly purchasing their next home before their current home has been sold.

Activity that results from those existing owners who are seeking quality improvements through the acquisition of a brand new home continue to find inventory levels to low to provide alternative choices, leaving them to revisit improving their home owning desires through renovation or the purchase of an already improved resale home.   

Calgary

Unit Sales
Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Heating
Absorption Rate: Decreasing
Trading Rate: Cooling

(Readings included with Subscription)

DOBT:
increasing
Trading Cycle Stage:
Entry

Unit Prices
NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00
​RPPI: 101.00

Equity at Risk:
​increasing
41.7%

Previous Cycle Call:
Exit/Entry
Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014
​Called: Aug 2014
Validated: Dec 2014

Current Cycle Call:
Entry
Suspected: Jan 2016
Recorded: Mar 2016
​Called: Apr 2016
Forecast Validation: Dec 2016

Intelligence and Insight
Calgary 30 Days of April
​Calgary home sales continued to heat up for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go positive in December 2016.

Calgary as entered the early days of its new Trading Cycle but the sales mix is yet to chance because first time buyers are expecting further price decreases before they return to the market in enough numbers to be reflected in substantial average selling price declines.

While the market has entered this new stage the number of available first time buyers remains lower than when the last cycle began its run.  This time around, employment, migration and debt levels are in a far different place than they were back in 2011. 

The current market is now UnderSold where no existing home seller can really afford to buy their next home before having their own firmly sold.  Even successful sellers are looking at delaying their next purchase unless an extremely attractive buying opportunity appears on the horizon which could bode well for landlords who own higher quality homes purchased before 2011.

Calgary is benefiting from the normal intra-provincial migration that takes place when an economy is contracting drawing households from a province's marginal markets towards their prime.  This further assists the average selling price being reported in maintaining the illusion of price stability when on the ground real prices continue to fall.
Toronto

Unit Sales
​Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Cooling
Absorption Rate: Increasing
Trading Rate: Heating

(Readings included with Subscription)

DOBT:
decreasing
Trading Cycle Stage:
Exit

Unit Prices
​NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00
​RPPI: 101.00

​Equity at Risk:​
increasing
41.7%

Previous Cycle Call:
Exit/Entry
​Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014
​Called: Aug 2014
Validated: Dec 2014

​Current Cycle Call:
Exit
​Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014
​Called: Aug 2014
Forecast
Validation:
 Dec 2014

Intelligence and Insight
​Toronto 30 days of April
Vancouver home sales continued to cool down for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go negative in August 2016.
Montreal

Unit Sales
​Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Heating
Absorption Rate: Decreasing
Trading Rate: Heating

(Readings included with Subscription)

DOBT:
decreasing
Trading Cycle Stage:
​Contraction

​Unit Prices
​NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00
​RPPI: 101.00

​Equity at Risk:
​increasing
41.7%

Previous Cycle Call:
Contraction
​Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014
​Called: Aug 2014
Validated: Dec 2014

Current Cycle Call:
Contraction
​Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014
​Called: Aug 2014
Forecast
Validation:
 Dec 2014

Intelligence and Insight
​ Montreal 30 days of April
Vancouver home sales continued to cool down for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go negative in August 2016.
Ross Kay
​HomeOwnership Advisors
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  • About Us
    • Our Approach
    • Ross Kay Biography
    • Join Us >
      • Join
      • LTTPs
    • Contact Us
  • RKRC Measures
  • Realty 101
    • Realty Cycles Definitions
    • The Trading Cycle
    • Trading Stages
    • Net Worth and the Realty Cycle
    • HPI in Canada
    • QMI
  • Our Calls/Research
    • Calgary
    • Our Calls
    • Affordability in Canada
    • Research >
      • CDN Mortgage Originations (mthly)
      • Vancouvers Ponzi Scheme
    • AHPP/Canada BTN >
      • AHPP
      • Canada BTN
  • Right to Own
  • The Wealthy Homeowner™
  • Insights
  • New Cannabis Act
  • Canadian Home Buyer August 2019
  • 10KPrize
  • 100KPrize
  • DEBUNKED
    • DEBUNKED INFLATION
  • BC Press Release
  • Canada
  • Definitions
  • Monday August 15 2022
  • Inflation