The BIG FOUR - April 2016
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Vancouver
Unit Sales
Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Cooling Absorption Rate: Increasing Trading Rate: Heating (Readings included with Subscription) DOBT:
decreasing Trading Cycle Stage: Exit Unit Prices
NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00 RPPI: 101.00 Equity at Risk:
increasing 41.7%
Previous Cycle Call:
Exit/Entry Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014 Called: Aug 2014 Validated: Dec 2014 Current Cycle Call:
Exit Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014 Called: Aug 2014 Forecast Validation: Dec 2014 Intelligence and Insight
Vancouver 30 days of April
Vancouver home sales continued to cool down for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go negative in August 2016. Vancouver's Trading Cycle is in the final days of its Mature Stage and as a result of the shifting sales mix the average home buyer who is purchasing is acquiring even more expensive homes skewing the average upward. While the brakes have begun to be applied on the market, the current velocity that was reached 3 months ago has created an OverSold condition in the market which naturally results in even further price gains being recorded. Bidding competition, claims of supply shortages and suggestions that more sales would have been recorded had inventory been available are common when existing home owners are increasingly purchasing their next home before their current home has been sold. Activity that results from those existing owners who are seeking quality improvements through the acquisition of a brand new home continue to find inventory levels to low to provide alternative choices, leaving them to revisit improving their home owning desires through renovation or the purchase of an already improved resale home. |
Calgary
Unit Sales
Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Heating Absorption Rate: Decreasing Trading Rate: Cooling (Readings included with Subscription) DOBT:
increasing Trading Cycle Stage: Entry Unit Prices
NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00 RPPI: 101.00 Equity at Risk:
increasing 41.7%
Previous Cycle Call:
Exit/Entry Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014 Called: Aug 2014 Validated: Dec 2014 Current Cycle Call:
Entry Suspected: Jan 2016
Recorded: Mar 2016 Called: Apr 2016 Forecast Validation: Dec 2016 Intelligence and Insight
Calgary 30 Days of April
Calgary home sales continued to heat up for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go positive in December 2016. Calgary as entered the early days of its new Trading Cycle but the sales mix is yet to chance because first time buyers are expecting further price decreases before they return to the market in enough numbers to be reflected in substantial average selling price declines. While the market has entered this new stage the number of available first time buyers remains lower than when the last cycle began its run. This time around, employment, migration and debt levels are in a far different place than they were back in 2011. The current market is now UnderSold where no existing home seller can really afford to buy their next home before having their own firmly sold. Even successful sellers are looking at delaying their next purchase unless an extremely attractive buying opportunity appears on the horizon which could bode well for landlords who own higher quality homes purchased before 2011. Calgary is benefiting from the normal intra-provincial migration that takes place when an economy is contracting drawing households from a province's marginal markets towards their prime. This further assists the average selling price being reported in maintaining the illusion of price stability when on the ground real prices continue to fall. |
Toronto
Unit Sales
Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Cooling Absorption Rate: Increasing Trading Rate: Heating (Readings included with Subscription) DOBT:
decreasing Trading Cycle Stage: Exit Unit Prices
NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00 RPPI: 101.00 Equity at Risk:
increasing 41.7%
Previous Cycle Call:
Exit/Entry Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014 Called: Aug 2014 Validated: Dec 2014 Current Cycle Call:
Exit Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014 Called: Aug 2014 Forecast Validation: Dec 2014 Intelligence and Insight
Toronto 30 days of April
Vancouver home sales continued to cool down for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go negative in August 2016. |
Montreal
Unit Sales
Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Heating Absorption Rate: Decreasing Trading Rate: Heating (Readings included with Subscription) DOBT:
decreasing Trading Cycle Stage: Contraction Unit Prices
NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00 RPPI: 101.00 Equity at Risk:
increasing 41.7%
Previous Cycle Call:
Contraction Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014 Called: Aug 2014 Validated: Dec 2014 Current Cycle Call:
Contraction Suspected: Apr 2014
Recorded: Jul 2014 Called: Aug 2014 Forecast Validation: Dec 2014 Intelligence and Insight
Montreal 30 days of April
Vancouver home sales continued to cool down for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go negative in August 2016. |
