The BIG FOUR - April 2016
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Vancouver
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Calgary
Unit Sales
Engagement: Declining
Acitivity: Heating Absorption Rate: Decreasing Trading Rate: Heating (Readings included with Subscription) DOBT:
increasing Trading Cycle Stage: Entry Unit Prices
NPPI: 101.00
APP!: 101.00 RPPI: 101.00 Equity at Risk:
increasing 41.7%
Previous Cycle Call:
Contraction Signaled: Apr 2014
Warned: Jul 2014 Confirmed: Aug 2014 Validated: Dec 2014 Current Cycle Call:
Expansion Signaled: Jan 2016
Warned: Mar 2016 Confirmed: Apr 2016 Forecast Validation: Dec 2016 Intelligence and Insight
Calgary 30 days of April
Calgary home sales continued to heat up for the 3rd consecutive month and are on pace to go positive in December 2016. Calgary as entered the early days of its new Trading Cycle but the sales mix is yet to chance because first time buyers are expecting further price decreases before they return to the market in enough numbers to be reflected in substantial average selling price declines. While the market has entered this new stage the number of available first time buyers remains lower than when the last cycle began its run. This time around, employment, migration and debt levels are in a far different place than they were back in 2011. The current market is now UnderSold where no existing home seller can really afford to buy their next home before having their own firmly sold. Even successful sellers are looking at delaying their next purchase unless an extremely attractive buying opportunity appears on the horizon which could bode well for landlords who own higher quality homes purchased before 2011. Calgary is benefiting from the normal intra-provincial migration that takes place when an economy is contracting drawing households from a province's marginal markets towards their prime. This further assists the average selling price being reported in maintaining the illusion of price stability when on the ground real prices continue to fall. |
Toronto
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Montreal
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