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Our Approach

  • The Forecasting Challenge for the Canadian Real Estate sector

    Economists have lacked the ability to research and study Real Estate Transactional Data (RETD) because they have not had access to raw data itself.  Even then, if they had the raw data, the ability to use that data and make forecasts from it, is something that would be impossible without having a real working knowledge of how a realty market evolves. There does not exist in any North American University today, a single course that explains the "ground rules" of how a realty market naturally evolves and certainly no course on how to understand Trading Cycles, Sales Cycles, The Sales Chain or Realty Cycles in general.
        
    Asking Economists who have no expertise of how the realty market factually operates, how the infrastructure that supports the sector impacts activity or when more relevant triggers outside basic economic fundamentals are not taken into account, attempt to make predictions, they inevitably are limited in their success. Most forecasters use models that may have partially worked before the year 2000, yet have not been updated to integrate larger forces that impact the actual buying or selling decision. Simply put, they try to predict the near future based on outdated limited methodology because they themselves have not been directly involved in the operation of the realty market or had access to the raw data that could provide insight. 


    Our Advantage: Direct Engagement in the Housing Sector, Ongoing Identification of Key Underlying fundamentals. 

    A 40 year-long tradition of direct involvement in the Realty Cycle and 30 years of access to raw housing data, gives Ross Kay Realty Consultants a singular perspective on the housing sector. Even in the face of changes to which factors are and will eventually impact a given market, our ongoing engagement allows us to modify our methodology to maintain our unique position. Our approach is a constantly evolving process that never remains static.  As additional fundamentals are identified, recorded and assessed for relevance, we update (with appropriate disclosures) our methodology to ensure our long term record of accuracy is maintained.

    It is a little known fact that the Canadian housing sector is unique in the world, impacted by fundamentals found nowhere else around the globe today.  It is only through understanding this uniqueness of the Canadian market that the opportunity for key fundamentals to be identified can occur.

  • Canada is the only country in the world with over 90% of it's national resale inventory searchable on a single website
  • Canadian home buyers are the most "connected" in the world
  • Canadian Mortgage Financing is fundamentally protected by it's national government
  • Canada's Pending to Closed ratio is the highest in the world
  • Canada's Nationally supported Health Care system drastically reduces the risk of foreclosure
  • Principle ResidenceTaxation benefit is at divestiture only
  • National standards allow for ease of population movement within the nation
  • Immigration levels are low and generally impacting only 3 key regional markets
  • Canada's licensed real estate professionals are the most regulated in the world
  • Urban growth is restricted by a series of geographical and legislative limitations
  • Regional economic changes affecting real estate more often impact an entire Province and not just a single city
  • One Region in the country generally dominates with over 35% of national housing activity
  • Canada's New and ReSale housing sectors both are structured, monitored and legislated for the benefit of sellers
  • RETD is copyright protected preventing public access


  • Ross Kay Realty Consultants forecasting framework is as Unique as the Canadian marketplace


    Ross Kay Realty Consultants operates independent of the limitations naturally tied to housing sector participation in Canada, acknowledged for our objectivity and non-partisanship, we have a unique perspective that is not constrained or limited by dominant academic paradigms, political ideologies, or support from special-interest trade associations. 

     
    Contact us at pros@rosskay.com.
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    • About Us
      • Our Approach
      • Ross Kay Biography
      • Join Us >
        • Join
        • LTTPs
      • Contact Us
    • RKRC Measures
    • Realty 101
      • Realty Cycles Definitions
      • The Trading Cycle
      • Trading Stages
      • Net Worth and the Realty Cycle
      • HPI in Canada
      • QMI
    • Our Calls/Research
      • Calgary
      • Our Calls
      • Affordability in Canada
      • Research >
        • CDN Mortgage Originations (mthly)
        • Vancouvers Ponzi Scheme
      • AHPP/Canada BTN >
        • AHPP
        • Canada BTN
    • Right to Own
    • The Wealthy Homeowner™
    • Insights
    • New Cannabis Act
    • Canadian Home Buyer August 2019
    • 10KPrize
    • 100KPrize
    • DEBUNKED
      • DEBUNKED INFLATION
    • BC Press Release
    • Canada
    • Definitions
    • Monday August 15 2022